The yield curve inverted in June 2022, and as we all know, the recession never came. When it flipped positive in 2024, ...

Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

The yield curve is a graphical representation that plots the interest rates of bonds with equal credit quality but varying maturity dates. A normal yield curve slopes upward, indicating higher ...

An inverted yield curve, in which yields on longer-dated bonds are below those for shorter-dated instruments, has correctly predicted the last nine U.S. recessions in the post-World War II era.

Later in this article, I will display a chart revealing a consistent pattern of when a recession is most likely to begin. From a trader's viewpoint, pattern recognition is essential for successful ...

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The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

The Treasury yield curve is now its least inverted—meaning yields on long-term Treasurys are below those on shorter-term ones—since Nov. 1, with the two-year yield sliding to near-year lows. Inverted ...

You know that once-mythical soft landing thing that Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee referenced in his recent interview with Marketplace? It’s the thing where inflation is tamed but ...